Impacto das variáveis econômicas nos custos e preço de venda dos milhos safra e safrinha

Abstract

Corn plays a strategic role in the Brazilian economy, being one of the most relevant crops for agribusiness, contributing both to domestic supply and to international trade. It is an agricultural commodity widely used in human consumption, animal feed production, and several industrial segments, such as ethanol, starches, and by-products. In Brazil, corn production is characterized by two distinct production cycles: the first crop (summer corn), cultivated mainly during the rainy season, and the second crop (corn safrinha), planted after soybean harvest, especially in the Midwest region, which currently accounts for the largest share of national production. In view of increasing economic volatility and market uncertainties, this study aimed to analyze the relationship between economic variables and the production costs and selling prices of first- and second-crop corn in the main producing regions of Brazil from 2015 to 2024. Specifically, the study sought to identify which economic factors exert the greatest impact on cost structures and on corn price formation. The methodology adopted a quantitative approach, using secondary data obtained from official sources such as CONAB, IBGE, the Central Bank of Brazil (BACEN), and IPEA. Econometric models with panel data were estimated. The economic variables analyzed included Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest rate (SELIC), exchange rate, and country risk. The results indicate that the exchange rate has a statistically significant impact on corn selling prices, particularly for second-crop corn, reflecting its greater exposure to the international market. Interest rates and country risk showed a relevant influence on production costs, highlighting the role of agricultural financing and risk perception in the cost structure. Inflation mainly affected operating costs, while GDP showed a positive relationship with prices, signaling higher demand during periods of economic expansion. These findings support the Contingency Theory framework, as corn cost management and price formation depend on producers’ ability to adapt to changing economic conditions. The study contributes to the empirical literature on corn production in Brazil and provides managerial insights for agribusiness decision-making, supporting the formulation of more efficient strategies in environments marked by economic volatility.