Relação da diversificação geográfica dos negócios, esforços em inovação e fatores contingenciais no desempenho financeiro: uma análise das empresas brasileiras

Abstract

Context: Organizations face increasing pressure to pursue opportunities in international and regional markets, driven by global competition and the need to enhance competitiveness and survival rates. Although geographic expansion is a strategic move, it presents significant challenges—particularly in emerging economies—where contingency factors (such as economic cycles, public policies, regional absorptive capacity, and institutional heterogeneity) moderate the relationship between geographic diversification, innovation, and financial performance. Existing literature on internationalization, innovation, and performance remains inconclusive, especially within the Brazilian context, where the interplay among international expansion, regional expansion, innovation efforts (R&D, brands, patents, energy transition), and contingency factors (government subsidies, crisis periods, regional development) remains underexplored. This gap justifies research examining the interaction between geographic diversification (international and regional), innovation across its multiple dimensions, and the contingency factors that determine the effectiveness of these strategies. Objective: To investigate how geographic diversification (international and regional expansion), innovation efforts (R&D, brands, patents, energy transition), and contingency factors (tax incentives, crisis periods, regional development, absorptive capacity) influence the financial performance of publicly traded, non-financial Brazilian companies. Method: The research was structured into three complementary studies. The first study developed a theoretical framework integrating the Resource-Based View (RBV), Contingency Theory, and Internationalization Dynamics, demonstrating that performance is a function of innovation resources, geographic diversification strategy, contingency factors, and the interactions among these elements. The second study empirically analyzes international expansion, examining 1,286 observations of Brazilian companies (2008–2022) to test how export intensity, innovation efforts (R&D, brands, patents), and crisis periods influence performance (ROA, Tobin’s Q), with an emphasis on heterogeneous effects during economic crises. The third study addresses regional expansion, analyzing 58 companies in the Brazilian energy sector (2010–2022) to test how R&D, the energy transition, government subsidies, and regional heterogeneity influence performance (ROA, ROE), focusing on mechanisms of regional absorptive capacity. The findings reveal complex dynamics. First, exporting showed a positive correlation with ROA but a negative one with Tobin’s Q, suggesting that international markets require high investments with long-term returns. R&D, brands, and patents correlate positively with performance, confirming the value of innovation resources. However, interactions between exporting and innovation are not significant, indicating they operate through distinct channels. Crisis periods diminish the effects of exporting and innovation, revealing the vulnerability of international diversification strategies to macroeconomic shocks. Second, the energy transition boosts performance (ROA and ROE), generating immediate returns. R&D shows negative coefficients, suggesting that innovation requires longer time horizons. Subsidies amplify combined effects (R&D × Energy Transition × Internationalization for ROA and ROE), indicating that well-targeted public policies complement private investments. Subsidies have a negative effect in less developed regions when isolated but a positive effect when combined with R&D and the energy transition, suggesting that regional absorptive capacity is a relevant factor. Geographic diversification (international and regional) generates returns but entails significant complexity and context dependence. Innovation is fundamental, though it operates over different time horizons. Contingency factors significantly moderate these effects, confirming contingency theory. Subsidies amplify the impact of private innovation when well-targeted. Alignment of the research with the PPGAdm concentration area (Regionality and Management) and research line: The research aligns with the concentration area by examining how geographic diversification—at both international and regional scales—influences regional development and organizational performance. Specifically regarding the regional dimension, the study analyzes how geographic location, regional development, institutional heterogeneity, and regional absorptive capacity determine the effectiveness of diversification and innovation strategies. Regarding the organizational management dimension, it provides evidence on how managers can tailor innovation and diversification strategies to the regional context, with implications for resource allocation, location decisions, and value capture of public policies. Based on its research focus, it integrates distinct theories—linking the Resource-Based View (RBV/innovation resources), Contingency Theory (contextual factors), and Internationalization Dynamics—to offer a theoretical framework for understanding the complex relationship between diversification, innovation, and performance in specific regional contexts. Impact and innovative nature of the intellectual output: This research is innovative in several respects: (1) It achieves theoretical integration by linking RBV, Contingency Theory, and Internationalization, demonstrating that performance is a function of resources, context, and organizational strategies—an interplay rarely explored collectively in the literature. (2) It simultaneously examines international and regional expansion, revealing that effects vary across scales. (3) It distinguishes between short-term innovation (energy transition) and long-term innovation (R&D), showing that public policies must differentiate between types of innovation. (4) It extends Cohen & Levinthal’s theory to the context of regional heterogeneity, demonstrating that less developed regions can convert subsidies into innovation when combined with R&D and energy transition efforts. (5) It demonstrates that subsidies amplify the impact of private innovation, contradicting the crowding-out hypothesis. (6) It provides an analysis of the Brazilian energy sector, a critical sector for the energy transition. (7) It covers multiple crises, allowing for an analysis of heterogeneous effects during periods of crisis. Economic, social, and regional impact: The research offers several contributions. In the economic dimension, it provides evidence on how firms can strategically combine geographic diversification, innovation, and the utilization of public policies to achieve superior performance. Results suggest that well-targeted subsidies amplify the impact of private innovation, with implications for public policy design in emerging economies. In the social dimension, it demonstrates that regional diversification—when combined with innovation and the development of absorptive capacity—can foster employment, income, and opportunities in less developed regions. Furthermore, the analysis of the energy transition contributes to the global sustainability agenda. At the regional level, the study analyzes Brazilian companies with operations in specific regions, providing insights into how regionalized subsidy policies and the development of absorptive capacity can foster sustainable regional growth. Regional implications: The findings demonstrate significant regional implications. Geographic expansion yields returns, yet the effects vary based on regional development levels, absorptive capacity, and public policies. Specifically, government subsidies have a negative effect in less developed regions when applied in isolation, but a positive effect when combined with R&D and the energy transition, suggesting that regional development requires an integrated approach. The energy transition generates immediate returns, whereas R&D requires longer time horizons, implying that regional policies must distinguish between short- and long-term innovations. The research provides an empirical basis for designing more effective regional policies, demonstrating that less developed regions can achieve superior performance when subsidy policies are combined with investments in regional absorptive capacity (universities, research centers, workforce training) and diversification strategies that foster resilience during crises, thereby contributing to sustainable regional development. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) addressed: The research contributes to multiple SDGs: SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) by examining how geographic diversification and innovation can foster employment and economic growth in less developed regions. SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) by analyzing the role of R&D, brands, patents, and the energy transition as drivers of industrial innovation, and by providing evidence on how public policies can stimulate private-sector innovation. SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) through the analysis of the energy transition as a strategy for more sustainable production, observing how companies can adopt renewable energy and improve energy efficiency. SDG 13 (Climate Action) by contributing to the understanding of how the energy transition at the corporate level can reduce carbon emissions and contribute to global climate goals. SDG 17 (Partnerships and Means of Implementation), by demonstrating the importance of alignment among public policies (subsidies), regional absorptive capacity (universities, research centers), and private investments in innovation to achieve sustainable development goals.