A trajetória tecnológica e as transformações na cadeia global de veículos elétricos entre Brasil e China

Abstract

The intensification of climate change and commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions have sped up the energy transition in the automotive industry, marking the gradual replacement of internal combustion engines with electric vehicles. This shift represents a reconfiguration in the production structure and value distribution in the Global Value Chains (GVCs) of this sector, moving the focus from mechanical engineering to activities focused on materials chemistry, semiconductors, electronics, and batteries. In this context, the present work aims to analyze the impacts of the energy transition on foreign trade flows between Brazil and China in the automotive sector. The research is mainly based on Global Value Chain theory, using international trade data from the UN Comtrade database organized into the production chain stages: upstream, midstream, and downstream. The results show that China has solidified its global leadership through a successful vertical integration, controlling everything from refining critical minerals to manufacturing battery cells and final assembly. On the other hand, Brazil's role turned out to be mostly primary exporting, with 91% of its exports to China coming from the upstream segment (mineral extraction and initial processing). At the same time, the data shows that Brazil relies heavily on technology imports for advanced industrial components (midstream), like lithium-ion batteries, and finished electric vehicles (downstream) from the Chinese market. It can be concluded that just having an abundance of strategic natural resources doesn’t guarantee capturing economic value, and the future of the national industry will depend on its ability to move forward in adding technological and industrial value.