Do nascimento ao declínio: como o ciclo de vida das organizações influencia a fraude contábil

Abstract

This study analyzes how the stages of the organizational life cycle influence the likelihood of accounting fraud indicators in Brazilian companies listed on B3 between 2020 and 2025. Grounded in the organizational life cycle models proposed by Dickinson (2011) and Miller and Friesen (1984), as well as the Fraud Triangle and Fraud Diamond theories, the study adopts a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative techniques. The quantitative stage consisted of applying logistic regression to a sample of 325 non-financial companies listed on B3 in order to examine the relationship between organizational life cycle stages and the likelihood of accounting fraud indicators. Variables related to financial leverage, profitability, corporate governance, and organizational characteristics were included in the analysis. Complementarily, the qualitative stage involved documentary analysis of independent auditors' reports, corporate governance reports, and shareholders' meeting minutes, allowing for a deeper contextual interpretation of the statistical findings. The results indicate that the Introduction and, particularly, the Decline stages are associated with a higher probability of fraud indicators when compared to the Maturity stage. Financial leverage was found to have a positive effect on the estimated risk, whereas profitability and corporate governance mechanisms acted as mitigating factors. The findings suggest that vulnerability to accounting fraud arises from the interaction between organizational stage, financial pressure, and the quality of governance mechanisms, being more pronounced in contexts of structural instability and economic deterioration. This study contributes to the literature by integrating the organizational life cycle perspective into discussions on accounting fraud, providing insights to enhance corporate governance and auditing practices.