Uma análise empírica-estrutural dos regimes de crescimento wage-led ou profit-led para o brasil entre 1947 e 2021, pela perspectiva pós-kaleckiana

Abstract

This dissertation empirically analyzes, from a post-Kaleckian perspective, the growth regimes of the Brazilian economy between 1947 and 2021, seeking to classify them as wage-led or profit-led. Using a structural approach, the study separately estimates the impact of functional income distribution on consumption, investment, and the external sector. The results reveal heterogeneity: consumption responds positively to increases in the wage share (wage-led), while investment reacts negatively (profit-led). The effect on net exports is ambiguous but tends to be profit-led. The aggregate analysis indicates that the growth regime is sensitive to the econometric specification, potentially being classified as wage-led in the long run and profit-led in the short run. The work concludes that redistributive policies face a trade-off between stimulating consumption and discouraging investment.