Ensaios em Finanças Públicas: Um Enfoque nas Despesas por Função de Governo

Abstract

This thesis investigates how the functional composition of public expenditures influences economic performance, fiscal dynamics, and the territorial organization of public spending. Based on the premise that the effects of the State do not derive solely from the total volume of resources but mainly from the way these resources are distributed across different budgetary functions, the study articulates evidence at three levels of analysis: international, national, and municipal. At the international level, the relationship between public expenditures classified according to the COFOG system and GDP per capita is analyzed using a panel of 74 advanced and emerging countries between 2010 and 2019 through panel data models estimated via system GMM. The results highlight the relevance of environmental protection and health expenditures for economic growth, while spending on public order/safety and economic affairs shows a negative relationship with economic activity. At the national level, the dynamic relationship between revenues and expenditures of the Brazilian central government is investigated using bimonthly data from 2009 to 2024, employing ARDL and NARDL models combined with cointegration tests. The results indicate a long-run relationship between revenue collection and several expenditure functions, a predominance of the spend–revenue hypothesis, the presence of asymmetries in fiscal adjustments, and a relevant influence of financial expenditures in the dissociation of the long-run fiscal equilibrium. At the municipal level, the dynamics of per capita public expenditures between 2015 and 2024 are analyzed by combining spatial econometrics and convergence tests. The results reveal stable positive spatial autocorrelation, the absence of national convergence, and the formation of two convergence clubs, indicating that municipal fiscal inequalities reflect persistent spatial structuring and institutional heterogeneity.