Valuation para decisão de investimentos em ações: um estudo da empresa CPFL Energia S.A.

Abstract

This research aims to assess the economic value of CPFL Energia S.A. using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Relative Valuation by Multiples methods to determine whether these valuation approaches accurately reflect the company's value generation. Based on financial data from 2020 to 2024, future projections were developed for the 2025 to 2029 period, considering a 3% growth rate aligned with GDP forecasts. To compare the company's share values, the closing price on February 25, 2025, the date of the publication of the last quarter of 2024 Financial Statements, was used, with a market price of R$ 35.42. The results showed that the DCF method estimated a share price of R$ 221.46, while the Relative Valuation method indicated R$ 697.06, suggesting a significant discrepancy of 84.01% and 94.86%, respectively, compared to the market price. This difference suggests a potential undervaluation of CPFL shares, particularly considering the growth potential of the electric sector and the company's resilience. The analysis emphasizes the importance of the DCF method for determining the fair value, given its ability to incorporate the company's specificities and the sectoral economic context, contributing to improved investment decisions.