Padrões Espaço-Temporais da Recorrência de Focos de Calor em Minas Gerais

Abstract

The increasing frequency and intensity of forest fires, intensified by climate change and anthropogenic pressures, represents a growing challenge on a global and national scale. In the state of Minas Gerais, characterized by the transition between the Cerrado, Atlantic Forest, and Caatinga biomes, fire dynamics become complex, requiring an in-depth understanding of its recurrence patterns. This study's main objective is to determine the spatio-temporal distribution of heat spots in Minas Gerais and to analyze their relationship with hydrological factors. To achieve this purpose, the research was structured into three complementary chapters. Initially, a bibliometric analysis was conducted to map the global and national scientific landscape on the topic, identifying trends, established tools, and knowledge gaps. Subsequently, spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran's Index) was applied to heat spot data from 2016 to 2023, which enabled the identification and validation of persistent high- and low-recurrence clusters within the state's territory. Finally, the study investigated the hypothesis that hydrological conditions influence this distribution by correlating the identified clusters with Total Water Storage (TWS) data from the GRACE mission and consecutive days without rain. The results confirm that high-recurrence areas face significantly greater water stress, offering an integrated diagnosis that can support more effective management and prevention strategies.