Resiliência financeira governamental: construção de um indicador e análise de sua aplicação em municípios e regiões do Brasil

Abstract

Context: Governmental Financial Resilience (GFR), understood as the ability of governments to anticipate, absorb, and respond to financial shocks while maintaining essential public services, constitutes one dimension of Governmental Financial Condition, alongside fiscal stress. The specialized literature indicates that this resilience is influenced by financial, environmental, and organizational factors. However, the existing literature remains limited and presents gaps that warrant further investigation. Objective: This dissertation sought to investigate Governmental Financial Resilience (GFR) in its theoretical and empirical dimensions, with three main contributions: (i) a mapping of the state of the art through a systematic literature review; (ii) the development of a novel quantitative indicator to measure GFR; and (iii) an analysis of its determinants in Brazilian municipalities, focusing on regional disparities. The research was conducted through three sequential and complementary articles. Method: The first article conducted a systematic literature review using the ProKnow-C methodology, resulting in a bibliographic portfolio of 31 studies. The second article proposed an original indicator for GFR, employing the FS-OPA optimization technique (Feature Sensitivity – Optimization based on Phylogram Analysis) applied to municipal data from 2015 to 2023. The third article analyzed the determinants of GFR through a multinomial logistic regression model, considering financial, environmental, and organizational variables. Results: The main results highlighted the incipience of the topic in the literature, with a concentration of studies in developed countries and a lack of consensus on how to measure resilience. The application of the FS-OPA technique enabled the selection and optimization of indicators, culminating in the proposal of a composite indicator that classifies municipalities into four levels of resilience. The analysis of determinants confirmed the significant influence of financial, environmental, and organizational factors, although some effects were not directly continuous or easily interpretable, reflecting the complexity of the phenomenon. Alignment with the PPGAdm concentration area (Regionality and Management) and research line: The study aligns with the “Regionality and Management” concentration area of the PPGAdm, as it not only investigates the impact of public finance on society but also incorporates the regional dimension as a key analytical element—particularly in the third article, which focuses on the mesoregions under UFU’s sphere of influence. This approach is consistent with the research line “Society, Development, and Regionality,” by emphasizing regional specificities in the context of public management and contributing to the formulation of development strategies that consider local characteristics. Innovative and intellectual contribution: The innovative character and intellectual impact of this dissertation lie in the proposition of an objective indicator for GFR, built from a nonlinear optimization technique and grounded in indicators drawn from academic literature. The articulation among the three articles—from theoretical mapping to methodological construction and regional empirical analysis—represents a structured contribution to the field of public finance. Economic, social, and regional impact: In practical terms, the study can generate economic, social, and regional impacts by providing a financial diagnostic tool accessible to public managers, potentially applicable as technical reports or monitoring systems. This may strengthen transparency, accountability, and the planning capacity of municipalities. Regional implications: The direct regional implications are evidenced by the finding that municipalities located within UFU’s mesoregional areas of influence exhibited a lower likelihood of achieving higher levels of financial resilience compared to other regions, indicating the need for specific public policies aimed at strengthening local capacities. Sustainable Development Goals addressed by the research: The study aligns with the United Nations 2030 Agenda and contributes to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By strengthening local governments’ ability to maintain essential services, it relates to SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger and Sustainable Agriculture), SDG 4 (Quality Education), and SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation). By promoting fiscal stability and an environment conducive to investment, it supports SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). By fostering transparency and responsible governance, it contributes to SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions). Finally, by offering a tool for regional comparison and inter-institutional cooperation, it aligns with SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).