Volatilidade do preço à vista do boi gordo no Brasil pós dependência das exportações para a China

Abstract

Contextualization: Over the past decade, Brazil has established itself as the world’s leading exporter of beef, with China becoming its main commercial partner. This growing dependence on the Chinese market has significantly altered the dynamics of the domestic beef market, particularly in relation to the pricing behavior of fat cattle (boi gordo). The increasing price volatility—driven by economic, sanitary, and political events—presents major challenges for the livestock supply chain and decision-making processes of producers, investors, and public managers. Research alignment: This study is part of the Graduate Program in Organizational Management at the Federal University of Uberlândia and is directly connected to the area of concentration Regionality and Management, as it focuses on a key regional production chain with national impact. It also aligns with the Business Management research line, offering both theoretical and practical contributions by analyzing market behavior and proposing tools for informed managerial decision-making. Objective: This dissertation aims to analyze the volatility of the spot price of fat cattle in Brazil from 2015 to 2024, with a special focus on the post-2020 period, when Brazilian dependence on Chinese exports intensified. It seeks to verify the existence of structural breaks in price behavior and evaluate how external shocks have influenced the volatility observed in the market. Method: The study was conducted in two main stages. The first consisted of a scoping review of national academic literature to identify key themes, approaches, and gaps related to pricing and volatility in the fat cattle market. The second involved the application of GARCH-family econometric models, especially the t-ARMA(2,2)-GARCH(2,2), using daily data from CEPEA/USP and IBGE. This modeling enabled the measurement of volatility, detection of clusters, asymmetries, and identification of structural breaks associated with intensified trade with China. Results: The findings indicate the presence of a structural break starting in 2020, marked by a significant increase in price volatility. This shift points to a new volatility regime in which the market has become more sensitive to global shocks and more exposed to international uncertainties. The intensification of exports and the impact of sanitary events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have contributed to sustained price instability, directly affecting the decision-making processes of supply chain agents. Alignment with the Graduate Program’s area of concentration and research line: This research contributes directly to the understanding of economic risk management in a regional production chain of strategic importance to Brazil. It is closely aligned with the Business Management area by focusing on local realities influenced by global phenomena, and with the Business Management research line by generating applicable knowledge for enterprise-level decision-making in the livestock sector. Impact and innovative contribution to intellectual production: The innovation of this research lies in the combination of a structured scoping review with the application of a customized t-GARCH model adapted to the Brazilian context, using an extensive and upto-date database. The study is among the few that critically explore the effects of international trade relations on domestic agro-industrial markets and provides a foundation for future research on price risk, volatility modeling, and economic behavior in commodity markets. Economic, social, and regional impact: The results of the study have direct practical application in designing hedging strategies, price forecasting, and financial risk management for farmers, cooperatives, meatpackers, and investors. Regionally, it offers relevant insights for states like Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Minas Gerais, where cattle ranching is economically significant. Socially, by contributing to a more stable and predictable market, it strengthens the sustainability of rural production and supports income generation and food security. General implications: This research enhances the understanding of how international factors influence the volatility of essential commodity prices such as beef cattle. The findings suggest that strengthening price protection mechanisms and developing adaptive public policies are essential for maintaining stability in the Brazilian livestock sector. Additionally, the study reinforces the strategic importance of risk management in modern agribusiness. Sustainable Development Goals addressed in the research: This dissertation aligns with SDG 2 – Zero Hunger and Sustainable Agriculture, by promoting the resilience of food systems; SDG 12 – Responsible Consumption and Production, by supporting more efficient and informed management practices; and SDG 8 – Decent Work and Economic Growth, by contributing to economic stability and the sustainability of livestock farming.