Relações comerciais e transbordamento: a evolução das relações Brasil-China para a esfera político-diplomática

Abstract

This study analyzes the evolution of Brazil–China relations since the reestablishment of diplomatic ties in 1974, emphasizing trade as a key driver of spillover into the political and diplomatic spheres. The research draws on Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye Jr.’s theory of complex interdependence and Andrew Moravcsik’s liberal theory, combined with historical analyses of Brazilian foreign policy, to explain how the intensification of trade flows generates incentives for greater political and diplomatic convergence. The methodology is qualitative, incorporating bilateral trade data, agreements signed between the two countries, and patterns of alignment in United Nations voting, along with a literature review of leading International Relations scholars. The findings suggest that the deepening of Sino-Brazilian trade relations has influenced the pattern of diplomatic alignment in multilateral forums and bilateral political relations. Moreover, the study indicates that, even under governments rhetorically critical of closer ties with China, the effects of asymmetric economic interdependence and pressures from influential domestic actors have constrained political distancing, serving as a buffer against deeper ruptures. The research concludes that trade relations play a central role in the stability and rapprochement of diplomatic ties between the two countries, paving the way for further studies exploring spillover into additional areas.