Ciência de dados aplicada ao investimento em ações como suporte à aposentadoria pública

Abstract

Given the trend of the inversion of Brazil’s demographic pyramid, it becomes essential to consider alternatives to complement or even replace the income provided by the public pension system, in the event of its potential collapse. This study aims to assess the feasibility of equity investment portfolio strategies as an alternative to the public pension system, with the goal of mitigating the impacts of such a scenario based on data analysis and financial performance metrics, including expected return and associated risk. The investment portfolio was structured using stock selection methods inspired by the strategies of renowned financial market investors: Benjamin Graham, Décio Bazin, Luiz Barsi, and Joel Greenblatt. Data analysis was performed using the Python programming language, enabling the automation of extraction, transformation, and loading (ETL) processes. To compare the selected assets, Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory was applied, considering expected returns, individual asset risk, correlations, and exposure between assets to estimate the portfolio’s overall risk and return. The results demonstrate that all the strategies analyzed proved viable for generating complementary income in the long term, despite short-term fluctuations. The Graham strategy stood out for presenting the highest return and the lowest risk, being the only one that, according to the Sharpe Ratio, displayed a risk-return ratio superior to that of a risk-free asset. The Barsi strategy yielded the highest risk, while the Bazin strategy provided the greatest volume of dividends in the portfolio’s final year. In conclusion, from a fundamental analysis perspective and considering a long-term investment strategy, the studied methods represent viable alternatives for building a complementary income stream to the public pension system. These strategies may even generate an average monthly income exceeding 20% of the current minimum wage, while also allowing profit realization according to the investor’s needs.