Condicionantes econômicos regionais e de gestão financeira institucional do ensino superior brasileiro

Abstract

Contextualization: The expansion of higher education offerings in Brazil represented an important step toward overcoming a colonial history of exploitation and commodification of national wealth, including scientific knowledge, which was previously reserved for an aristocracy of knowledge. However, this expansion, at times implemented in an unplanned manner, produced adverse side effects, among which is the increase in educational costs inherent to an oversized superstructure of federal universities, established to broaden access through the provision of new slots and courses. The enactment of Law No. 12,711, dated August 29, 2012, commonly known as the “Quota Law,” and its subsequent implementation by institutions resulted in a shift in the student profile on university campuses, increasing the demand for institutional incentives aimed at student retention. After the decline in budgetary support for the REUNI program, universities began to experience financial difficulties, which raised dropout and retention rates. Objective: To analyze the social phenomena of “dropout” and “retention” from the perspective of academic trajectory indicators and their relations with the regional economic environment and institutional financial management, focusing on in-person undergraduate courses offered by the 69 Brazilian federal universities. Method: To gather the fundamental theoretical elements, the second chapter utilized a systematic literature review as a qualitative methodology. The third and fourth chapters adopted quantitative statistical methodology, employing Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) for panel data. The population gathered data from the 69 Brazilian federal universities. Results: From a systematic literature review, two theoretical gaps were identified: the lack of analyses relating regional economic environments and institutional financial management with the academic trajectory indicators from the Higher Education Census. The analysis of the regional economic environment as a conditioning factor for academic trajectory revealed that employed students have a lower tendency to be retained within the institution. In contrast, unemployment negatively impacts academic completion and persistence. Difficulties in balancing work and studies, a scarcity of job opportunities, and low income often increase dropout rates and prolong time-to-degree. However, even underemployment, which provides some income, can facilitate degree completion. The analysis of institutional financial management also demonstrated that, in light of reduced budget expenditures, some institutions seek additional budget credits, contributing to decreased dropout rates and increased retention. Maximizing the use of available budgetary resources tends to reduce dropouts and stimulate completions, highlighting the importance of efficient budget execution. The more representative the execution of discretionary budget expenditure relative to the authorized budget, the lesser the tendency towards dropout and the greater the chances of completion and persistence. Furthermore, increased financial execution of investments and financial incentives for students tends to reduce dropouts and promote academic retention. Research Adherence: The research aligns with the concentration area of the PPGAdm (Regionality and Management) and with the research line: The verification of the influence of the regional economic environment and institutional financial management on the social phenomena of dropout and retention demonstrates the adherent relationship with the Organizational Management and Regionality line, within the subject of Finance. Impact and Innovative Character in Intellectual Production: By identifying theoretical gaps, the thesis imparts an innovative character to public finance theory by presenting, for the first time, the prediction of academic trajectory indicators based on regional economic characteristics and institutional financial management. Economic, Social, and Regional Impact: The econometric models generated enable better distribution and performance of budgetary resources by introducing the influence of regional economic variables on academic trajectory. The thesis socially contributes by allowing the mitigation of the social phenomena of dropout and academic retention in the realm of in-person undergraduate education through the elucidation and understanding of regional economic and institutional financial management determinants associated with academic trajectory indicators. The regional contribution of the research lies in presenting the diverse realities surrounding the phenomenon, considering data from all Brazilian states. Regional Implications: The generated models allow for the identification of economicregional factors and institutional financial management that influence academic trajectory for in-person undergraduate courses at Brazilian federal universities, facilitating the assessment of disparities and generating new possibilities for mitigating university dropout and retention. Sustainable Development Goals Addressed in the Research: The thesis cooperates with the UN's 2030 Agenda concerning the Sustainable Development Goals, whose Goal 4 pertains to quality education, specifically ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education and promoting lifelong learning opportunities for all. In the Brazilian context, the results of the thesis align with Goal 4.3, which seeks to ensure equity (gender, race, income, region, and others) in access to and retention in quality vocational and higher education, whether free or affordable.