Epidemiologia da propagação de doenças por simulação computacional: covid-19

Abstract

The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic has brought great challenges to the epidemiolo-gical context. of the cities, in view of the need for adaptations to protect the health of the population and in parallel the maintenance of commercial activities to maintain subsistence. jobs. For the health area, the biggest challenge was managing the beds hospitals for occurrences that required hospitalization. the use of the mask facial, social isolation and flow reduction were the first measures to contain the viral dissemination before the construction of the vaccine, which changed the epidemiological scenario after the its insertion, albeit in a slow process at first. In view of the need to study the spread of COVID-19 after the introduction of the vaccine in the community, as well as the need to know scenarios where the combination of the use of a face mask and the combination with the vaccine can contribute with the authorities for planning and construction of public policies of health, the present work was built an adaptation of a SIRS model was used and 16 simulations were performed for different scenarios and pro-babilities with combinations between the use of masks and vaccines. From the simulations, the daily contaminations, the daily hospitalizations due to the infection and the fortnightly moving average of deaths due totes. It was observed that the use of a face mask alone plays a key role in containment of viral dissemination, but the best strategy observed was the combination of mask and vaccine. The use of the scenario of 50% vaccination coverage associated with 10% users wearing a mask, produced an epidemiological effect similar to 10% vaccination coverage and 50% users. masks, which demonstrates that the use of a face mask could have been used strongly to reduce contamination when vaccines were still in production and the vaccination coverage of the population was low, reducing contamination, hospitalizations and deaths. It is concluded that social behavior in the use of masks in a correct shape and proportion lines, as well as adherence to vaccination campaigns are key factors for reducing of virus circulation. The use of the cellular automaton is a statistical tool that can help control the spread of infec-tious and contagious diseases, specifically COVID-19. 19, contributing, through simulations of different scenarios, in the construction of information that can subsidize public authorities for planning interventions both for the current scenario and for future epidemics/pandemics.