Projeção dos impactos das mudanças climáticas na estrutura da rede hospedeiro - parasita: cetáceos e helmintos

Abstract

In recent years, climate change has received attention, as well as its impacts on the parasitic fauna of aquatic systems and its consequences in relation to changes in host distribution. Preserving species ranges has become an important component of conservation planning. Niche modeling is the most used strategy to project environmental changes that affect the spatial arrangement and species richness of parasites per individual. To this end, the maximum entropy method was used for ecological niche modeling, in order to map the distribution potential of cetacean species and their parasites, as there is an increasing demand for cetacean distribution models. Parasite-host networks were constructed and discovered in different scenarios relating to the pathway of greenhouse gas concentration by the end of the 21st century, which may alter the distribution of Stenella species and their parasites, with possible alteration in the rate of transmission and virulence of some of these parasites. The zoonotic parasites A. simplex, A. typica and S. pleuronectis increased the intensity of interaction as the average temperature increased, the variable that most influenced the presence of the cetacean species observed, indicating that climate change will have a significant impact on the distribution and survival of these species. The adaptive responses of cetacean prey and parasite distribution are correlated, which highlights the importance of adjusting to changes in prey distribution for parasite perpetuation. Furthermore, the complexity of ecological ecology suggests the need to consider phenology and evolutionary relationships when assessing the effects of climate change on these ecology.