Expansão internacional e risco financeiro: uma análise dos efeitos do desempenho ESG, dos períodos de instabilidade e da regionalidade

Abstract

Internationalization allows companies to access new consumer markets and increase their sources of income, thus contributing to the reduction of financial risk. However, the international expansion process also involves increased costs and the challenges of operating in a new market. Another factor that can contribute to the reduction of risk is the company's higher ESG performance due, for example, to achieving better risk management and transparency. Therefore, the general objectives of this thesis consist of: a) understanding and analyzing the relationship between sustainability and internationalization and b) analyzing the moderating effects of ESG performance and periods of instability on the relationship between international expansion and financial risk, using as a sample Brazilian non-financial companies listed on B3 from 2010 to 2020. To achieve the first general objective, a systematic literature review was carried out and, for the second, data were collected from the following sources: Thomson Reuters, Economatica, Ranking of Brazilian Multinationals by the Dom Cabral Foundation (FDC) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), as well as a multiple linear regression methodology with panel data with fixed effects or random effects. Also, the Degree of Internationalization (DOI) was used as a proxy for international expansion. In relation to risk, market beta proxies and stock volatility were used, which was estimated by the EGARCH model. The periods of instability were analyzed from moments of crisis and also through economic policy uncertainty (Economic Policy Uncertainty – EPU). The results of the systematic review indicate that increases in the degree of internationalization are related to higher levels of company sustainability due to increased demands from international stakeholders. Regarding the empirical results, which were controlled by corporate and macroeconomic variables, it was found that internationalization has a positive relationship with the company's total risk, however, it has a negative relationship with systematic risk. It was also found that ESG performance negatively moderates the relationship between internationalization and financial risk. Furthermore, during periods of crisis, companies that have higher levels of internationalization and ESG performance tend to present a lower risk in relation to those that have lower levels of these variables. In addition, it was found that EPU also tends to increase the financial risk of companies, however, the degree of internationalization and ESG performance contribute to minimizing risk during periods of high EPU. Regarding regionality, it appears that companies located in the Triângulo Mineiro have a greater financial risk, however, these companies manage to mitigate this risk by increasing their levels of sustainable practices.