Análise de previsão de demanda em uma indústria farmacêutica de pequeno porte

Abstract

Demand forecasting is an essential activity both for strategic production planning and for all functional areas of the organization that need to make future decisions. This work has as general objective to apply quantitative methods of demand forecasting in a small pharmaceutical industry, in order to assist in the development of production strategies that avoid sales losses and excess inventories. This is an applied study, and with regard to the objectives it is quantitative research. Descriptive research and a case study were carried out through a semistructured interview with the manager of a small pharmaceutical company, located in the city of Uberlândia. The data collected refer to the demand for products in the period from January 2019 to August 2021, the ABC classification was performed to identify the two products of greatest relative importance. The chosen model was applied in the Minitab® statistical software and validation was carried out for each study product. Once the model was validated, the forecasts for the months of September to December 2021 were obtained. The demand forecast for two products among the company's product mix was presented. For this, the time series decomposition method was applied. It was concluded that the results presented are valid. And that are relevant to the company, as it can help the manager in decision making, such as the amount of raw material in stock to be kept.