Análise da alteração do escoamento superficial pela tendência de evolução do uso e ocupação do solo usando Cadeia de Markov e análise espacial para Bacia do Córrego de São Pedro, Uberlândia/MG

Abstract

The São Pedro watershed in Uberlândia - MG is a place with a predominance of commercial and residential sectors, in addition to having an important access road to other regions of the municipality. The watershed, however, has a significant history of flooding, which shows significant direct and indirect damage to society. Knowing how the flow of runoff will progress over the years is characterized as important information for public management and is configured as non-structural and preventive measures for future urban drainage projects. In this context the objective of this research is the application of the Markov Chain stochastic process to simulate different scenarios of evolution of the land use and occupation of the urban basin of São Pedro in Uberlândia-MG. For this purpose, the image classifications were carried out by segmenting method of the basin for the years 1998, 2008 and 2018 in images from the Landsat series to determine the expansion of the urban spot in the basin and to identify the propagation directions. With the Markov Chain, land use and occupation maps were predicted for the 2028, 2038, 2048 and 2058 decades. The results were used for hydraulic and hydrological modeling with the adoption of the alternate block distribution method, and the development of a hydrograph by the Santa Barbara Method. The results show that using the Markov Chain allows an analysis of the growth trend, estimating the direction and the amount of urban expansion areas in the São Pedro Hydrographic Basin in future land use and occupation scenarios.