Três ensaios sobre economia do setor público: ciclos políticos e eficiência dos gastos públicos

Abstract

This thesis analyzed the political and electoral determinants that influence the behavior of the rulers in making tax decisions and also carried out an evaluation of the relative efficiency of the public sector when providing basic services of education and health. With regard to the analysis of the empirical evidence on the political and electoral factors found through the application of Meta-Regression Analysis technique, it is observed that among the main determinants for the explanation of the behavior of the rulers when manipulating the fiscal aggregates are in the literature: the political-electoral system, the ideology and the political alignment between the spheres of government. Moreover, the results obtained are consistent with the hypothesis that the level of perceived political-electoral competition tends to favor the manifestation of an opportunistic behavior of the ruler by generating political-economic cycles in the fiscal variables. Regarding the evaluation of the performance of the Brazilian federal units (UFs) (26 States and Federal District) associated to the provision of basic education services, it is identified that the main source of inefficiency is linked to government budgetary execution aimed at contracting resources. As for the analysis of efficiency in actions aimed at guaranteeing the supply of basic health services, a general average level of relative productivity is significantly lower than that considered adequate, given the strategic relevance of the health sector and its potential of spreading negative multiplier effects to society in cases where the poor quality of the public service provided. By using the Network Data Envelopment Analysis (NDEA) technique, it is possible to accept the hypothesis that the expansion of the level of government spending does not guarantee the expansion of the state performance indicators linked to the provision of essential public education services and health. When investigating the possible relationship between political-institutional and electoral factors with the state systemic efficiency indicator in the provision of public services, using the Tobit, Probit regression and linear probability with panel data, empirical evidence was obtained that allow to validate the hypothesis in which the manifestation of an opportunistic behavior of the ruler in electoral periods is assumed, in order to increase the average levels of the global efficiency of the Brazilian UFs by guaranteeing the supply of public education and health services to the population. Therefore, it is suggested that the opportunist ruler can seek to signal his administrative competence and, consequently, to increase his chances of political survival in the elections, using the strategy of generating cycles of efficiency in the provision of essential public services, especially in relation to the most visible the population as those linked to the education and health sectors.