Regressão quantílica aplicada ao potencial de mercado

Abstract

A current and recurring problem for businesses is the need to generate sustainable business in the shortest time and with the least investment. This undoubtedly requeres attention and effort to assess customers' consumption potential, in order to conduct marketing actions and leverage sales more accurately. Quantile Regression is a technique that has been gaining space in the analysis of economic and market data, whereas, increasingly, there is interest in understanding the behavior in some quantile and not only in the dataset average. Thus, Quantile Regression is a suitable technique for estimating the potential of purchasing from the consumer market, since the desire is to predict how much a customer has the resources to acquire the products, and not only what their average consumption would be. In this work, Quantile Regression was used to estimate the customers' purchasing potential of a large technology company, modeling the actual company revenue in function of economic variables related to customers. The results of the model for the 0.80 quantile were analyzed, concluding that the market potential for this quantile represents a real possibility within the company, and these results can be used for the construction of strategies that can attract new clients or stimulate them to reach that potential.