Relações entre crescimento econômico e características sociais dos municípios do estado de Minas Gerais

Abstract

Minas Gerais is a Brazilian state of huge importance, it owns the fourth largest territorial area between the states, it is the second biggest regarding to population amount and at 2010 it presented the third biggest gross national product among all the federations. The current paper had as general purpose to establish relations between the economic growth and social characteristics of the Minas Gerais cities through the regression analysis, which has as goal to set quantitative relations between the response variable (dependent) and one or more predictors variables (independents) from the adjust of a statistical model. In this way the per capita income was used as an economic growth indicator e for the social aspects the following were used: population amount, employed people proportion, average of vehicle per person, FIRJAN municipal development index of education, FIRJAN municipal development index of health, residents in urban area proportion and women proportion in each city, based in data related to 2010. Over the regression analysis it was found relation between the variables, being possible prediction of the per capita income in function of: the population amount, the employed people index, the vehicle average, the FIRJAN municipal development index of education, FIRJAN municipal development index of health, the urbanization index and the female index. The model presented good adjust, able to collect 74,25% of the total variability of income, the adjust describes that there is a positive relation between the income and all the others variables, and due to the Log-Linear type of the model, the independent variables cause an exponential growth effect in the dependent variable. The variable of the biggest income impact, considering its variation, is the employed people index, an increment of 0,1 in this is variable is expected a growth rate of 19,71% in the income. On the other hand, for the FIRJAN municipal development index of education, FIRJAN municipal development index of health, the urbanization index and the female index variables, a growth of 0,1 causes a growth rate in the per capita income of 4,02%, 3,28%, 2,61% and 10,84%, respectively. In the population case (in thousands), it presented low influence, an increase of 10 thousands of habitants produces a growth rate of 0,31% in the income, and for a growth of 0,1 in the vehicle average is expected a growth of 4,89%. The model presents that the growth and the economic development are strongly related, as it was indicated by the model: social aspects are connected to the income; a growth at the quality of the social characteristics (independent variables) will generate an income growth.