Transformações recentes no Sistema Bancário Nacional (1995-2007) : ajustes de portfólio e evidências empíricas

Abstract

The goal of this work is to analyze the transformations occurred in the national bank system (NBS) in the last 15 years. In the first chapter we present the main theoretical approaches related with that transformations. Then, we show the main concepts of the Theory of Financial Repression which was the guide to the implemented neoliberal reforms. After that, we show the criticism of this approach based on the post-keynesian theory and on the historical-institutional concepts. We also present, in a short form, the evolution of the NBS. Our central hypothesis is that the neoliberal reforms that occurred, particularly foreign banks entry, do not changed the way of working of the NBS. They adapted themselves at it. In the second chapter, we demonstrate the portfolio adjustment of the banks that act in Brazil. Methodologically, we classify the banks in three groups, taking in account their patrimonial control. We separate the whole period in three phases: from 1995 until 1999; from 2000 until 2002; and from 2002 until 2007. In this research, many evidences that support our central hypothesis were founded. The foreign banks had been those that, proportionally, most speculated against public securities during the crisis, showed themselves most rigids to alter their defensive positions and, even in the stability, kept their preference for liquidity in high levels. In this chapter, we also present some consequences and difficulties faced by public banks during and after the neoliberal reforms. In the third chapter, we use econometric techniques with panel organized data to explain how the account credit operations works in the active of the banks. The chapter begins with a summary of the panel model theory. Our focus is on the choice of the most appropriate technique and on the possible necessary corrections. The results point and measure the impacts on the percentage participation on the credit operations in reply to variations in loans profits, securities profits, GDP, among others variables. In the last chapter, we sum up the mains conclusions of the Dissertation.