Determinantes orçamentários do tamanho do governo no Brasil: uma análise via modelos SVAR

Abstract

This undergraduate thesis analyzes the dynamics of Brazilian fiscal policy from January 2003 to April 2025, focusing on the identification of the predominant fiscal taxonomy governing the relationship between public revenues and expenditures. Given the institutional characteristics of the Brazilian budgetary framework, marked by a high degree of expenditure rigidity and extensive constitutional earmarking, the study seeks to determine whether fiscal policy follows a spend-and-tax, tax-and-spend, or fiscal synchronization pattern. To this end, an empirical approach based on Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models is employed, encompassing both an aggregate analysis of public expenditures and their decomposition into mandatory and discretionary components, while controlling for economic activity. The results indicate that the dynamics of Brazilian fiscal policy cannot be explained by a strictly unilateral relationship between revenues and expenditures. Impulse response functions reveal the existence of asymmetric interactions between these variables, suggesting the predominance of a fiscal synchronization framework, although shocks to total and mandatory expenditures exert a stronger influence on the future path of government revenues than vice versa. Furthermore, discretionary expenditures were found to be more sensitive to fiscal conditions and the business cycle, constituting the main short-run adjustment mechanism. Overall, the evidence suggests that the high degree of budgetary rigidity in Brazil constrains the coordination between public revenues and expenditures, highlighting the importance of expenditure composition for fiscal sustainability.