A dinâmica da inflação de serviços no Brasil: inércia, tendência e volatilidade

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamics of services inflation in Brazil over the period from January 2003 to December 2024, comparing it with headline inflation as measured by the IPCA. The study combines univariate and multivariate approaches, employing an Unobserved Components model with Stochastic Volatility and Outliers (UCSVO), ordinary least squares regressions, a static VAR, and a Time-Varying Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) estimated within a Bayesian framework. In addition to services inflation, the analysis incorporates inflation expectations and labor market variables, such as unemployment and the real minimum wage. The results indicate that services inflation follows a dynamic distinct from headline inflation, characterized by a persistently high trend, low permanent volatility, and elevated transitory volatility. The univariate decomposition suggests that significant shocks are concentrated in episodes of domestic dis- ruption, while the multivariate analysis shows that the core transmission mechanisms, related to inertia, expectations, and labor market conditions, remain stable over time, although their intensity varies across macroeconomic regimes. In particular, the sensitivity of services inflation to labor market slack increases in periods of lower economic slack, highlighting the structural nature of inflation persistence in the services sector.