Suavização ou inclinação tributária? evidências assimétricas do ajuste fiscal no Brasil

Abstract

This research investigates the validity of the Tax Smoothing Hypothesis (TSH) and the presence of Tax Tilting in Brazil, using quarterly data from 1997 to 2024. The analyzed variables comprise the nominal fiscal balance, revenue, and central government expenditures. Through the estimation of Linear (ARDL) and Nonlinear (NARDL) Autoregressive Distributed Lag models, a deterministic modeling is proposed to ground the stochastic analysis of short- and long-run dynamics. The results indicate that fiscal policy meets the requirements of sustainability and gradualism, corroborating the basic pillars of the TSH. However, an asymmetric behavior is identified in revenue, better captured by the NARDL model, the robustness of which is corroborated by sensitivity tests involving the inclusion of a structural fiscal dummy variable. This nonlinearity evidences the manifestation of Tax Tilting, confirming that tax smoothing in Brazil occurs in coexistence with a systematic asymmetry in tax burden management. Finally, the joint interpretation of asymmetries and the speed of adjustment (ECM) suggests that linearity should be considered a third theoretical foundation for the full validation of the TSH.