Modelagem Hidrológica das Sub-bacias do Alto Rio Uberabinha e do Ribeirão Bom Jardim a Montante das Captações para Análise de Disponibilidade Hídrica

Abstract

Studies that consider water availability in watersheds have become increasingly common in research institutions, given the importance of assessing water security and the capacity of water resources to meet multiple uses within a basin. In this context, the objective of this study is to perform hydrological modeling using the SWAT+ model to evaluate water availability in two key sub-basins responsible for supplying water to the city of Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The methodology involved the development of the cartographic base and the compilation of a database including topography, land use and land cover, soil types, and the acquisition and processing of climate data. This information was integrated into the SWAT+ model, followed by sensitivity analysis, model calibration and validation, scenario development, and the construction of flow duration curves. The results include maps of digital elevation models, Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs), and streamflow time series generated by the model. The simulation covered the period from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2023. In the initial stage, prior to calibration, the quality indices of the simulation (NSE, PBIAS, and R²) indicated unsatisfactory performance. However, after sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation, the indices were adjusted to satisfactory levels, demonstrating the model's ability to represent the region’s hydrological behavior. Following this, two scenarios were simulated for each sub-basin. To assess water availability, the Q90 flow was used, obtained through flow duration curves. The results highlight a key issue in water resource management: during dry periods, water demand may exceed availability in these sub-basins, placing pressure on the public water supply system. Thus, the SWAT+ model proved to be a viable and efficient tool to support water resource planning and management, standing out as a valuable instrument for watershed management and integrated planning.