Dependência e assimetria na relação Brasil-China no período recente: uma análise empírica à luz da Lei de Thirlwall (1997-2023)

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the influence of China's economic growth on the Brazilian economy and test the hypothesis that the partnership between the two countries is either symmetrical or asymmetrical. To achieve this, the study employs Thirlwall's Law as a theoretical framework and estimates a multiple regression econometric model using data from 1997 to 2023. The results indicate that China's growth has a significant impact on the Brazilian economy, revealing a structural dependence. Thus, the study contributes to a better understanding of the Brazil-China relationship within the context of complex interdependence, showing that, although crucial for Brazil, the economic partnership is not balanced.