O Novo Arcabouço Fiscal e a Dinâmica da Relação Dívida/PIB na Economia Brasileira

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of Brazil’s New Fiscal Framework (NAF) on the debt-to-GDP ratio dynamics, employing a Vector Autoregression (VAR) econometric approach to account for the endogenous relationships among key macroeconomic variables. By simultaneously modeling the interactions between the implicit interest rate on public debt, GDP growth, and the primary fiscal result, the VAR framework captures the complex feedback loops that shape public indebtedness. The empirical findings highlight that economic growth exerts the most significant influence on stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio, surpassing the effects of primary balance adjustments and interest rate changes. While reducing interest rates and achieving primary surpluses can provide short-term relief, sustained economic expansion emerges as the principal channel for curbing public indebtedness. Consequently, the effectiveness of the NAF hinges on implementing policies that foster investment, boost productivity, and strengthen the revenue base, thereby enhancing fiscal sustainability. In conclusion, the results underscore that although the NAF grants greater fiscal flexibility, its long-term credibility demands more than adherence to predetermined fiscal targets. A well-coordinated policy mix—integrating fiscal and monetary measures—and the cultivation of a supportive economic environment are essential to moderating debt accumulation, ensuring productive public investment, and fostering stable, long-run macroeconomic equilibrium.