Resiliência financeira dos regimes próprios previdenciários: um estudo derivado da teoria da escolha pública

Abstract

Social security, a social right and duty of the State, must be achieved through effective actions that guarantee the financial and actuarial balance of the social security systems themselves, under penalty of incurring insolvency for future generations. It happens that, in a current context, there is a certain indebtedness of the federated entities added to the finding of not so expressive results of the Brazilian RPPS, especially at the municipal level. Thus, considering the financial resilience approach with regard to the ability of governments to anticipate, absorb and react to financial shocks over time, as well as considering the level of vulnerability to which RPPS are exposed, a study is appropriate. that can understand how the public managers of their own social security systems act and decide, specifically from the point of view of the coexistence between private and collective interests and their reflections on the resilience of the RPPS, which is the objective of the work. Based on the assumptions of the Public Choice Theory (PTE), we sought to answer the question of how TEP can explain standard of financial resilience in the RPPS of Brazilian subnational entities, based on the decision-making process of public managers. As for the methodological procedures, it was decided to use the mixed method with a proposed sequential explanatory design consisting of the first quantitative stage in which it was possible, with a sample of 1521 municipalities, to construct an Indicator of Financial Resilience of the RPPS of Brazilian municipalities (IRF-RPPS) resorting to the use of the multivariate technique of analysis of the main components, considering variables inherent to the financial results of the RPPS, as well as those related to the public indebtedness of the municipalities. As a second stage of the research, a qualitative study was developed with the elaboration of a questionnaire with 25 objective questions (multiple choice and Likert-type scale) and discursive, in which it was sought to understand the conceptions of the managers regarding the aspects inherent to the financial resilience of the RPPS , identify the behavior of managers regarding investment activities, verify whether the decision-making process of public managers is guided by other interests or influences, as well as analyze the perceptions of RPPS managers based on TEP assumptions. From the integration of the two stages of the study, it was possible to verify that the assumptions of the TEP explain the financial resilience of the Brazilian RPPS, since, as homo economicus acts, public managers make decisions based on private interests, since they are rational, selfish and utility maximizers, a fact that contributes to the low standards of financial resilience found in the pension systems of Brazilian subnational entities. This thesis presents contributions regarding the promotion of theoretical discussions around the application of TEP to the decision-making process of public managers of RPPS. In addition, it brings practical contributions, by highlighting the basic assumptions of the TEP (methodological individualism, rational choice and politics as an exchange) within the scope of the specific regimes, and such findings can collaborate with the improvement of management activities, with the purpose of contributing to the achievement of financial and actuarial balance, with the consequent improvement in the financial resilience standards of the RPPS.