Ensaios sobre Vantagens Comerciais Setoriais, Mudança Estrutural e Complexidade Econômica: Uma Análise Teórica e Empírica com Foco no Brasil Recente

Abstract

This thesis consists of three essays, which discuss in a complementary manner the determinants of countries' external competitiveness, captured by the Thirlwall elasticities ratio, as well as their relationship with exchange rate, structural change and long-term economic growth. The first essay estimates the income elasticity of demand for exports and imports to Brazil in relation to three major trading partners: the United States, the Netherlands and China, broken down into twelve sectors, in line with the Multisectoral Thirlwall Law (ARAUJO and LIMA, 2007). It is concluded that Brazil's commercial competitive dynamics are quite different when studying specific sectors and trading partners, compared to the aggregated model. Brazil stands out negatively for having low dynamic competitiveness in several industrial products with China and in the fuel sector with the US and the Netherlands, but it is competitive in food and basic beverages with the US and in transport equipment and basic industrial inputs with the Netherlands. This information can support an industrial policy strategy for foreign insertion in sectors adjacent to those already established and internationally competitive, especially in the case of fuels. Essay two estimates the effect of the exchange rate on changing Brazil's export and import patterns, considering twenty-one groups of products and twenty trading partners, in order to verify whether a more devalued exchange rate is capable of triggering significant structural changes. The bilateral real exchange rate is calculated for each trading partner and this effect is controlled by the income effect. It appears that the appreciation of the exchange rate is associated with a greater share of mineral products in exports, while the devaluation favors some sectors, notably transport materials, which gains space in foreign sales, while losing in the import basket, but the aggregate effects on the total complexity of traded goods are generally uncertain, with significant sectoral differences. With these findings, although the exchange rate cannot be neglected in an industrial transformation strategy, its isolated effect is insufficient for the Brazilian case. Finally, the third essay estimates the ratio of the elasticities of a group of countries to later develop a mathematical model and test it empirically, seeking to verify the reason for this ratio to differ substantially among nations, since this relationship is usually a good predictor of effective long-term growth. It appears that the countries that manage to transform their productive structure towards more complex goods, as defined by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009), are those with the greatest dynamic competitiveness, measured by the combination of high marginal propensity to export and low marginal propensity to import. As a result, policies that are successful in altering the supply side of countries and inserting their products abroad may be able to alter the growth trajectory. The essays complement each other by discussing the determinants of the elasticities ratio and verifying the sectors in which the industrial policy would be more effective, in terms of cost-benefit, to leverage Brazil's sustained long-term growth, taking into account the supply structure in force and the most relevant commercial partners today.