A teoria novo-desenvolvimentista: uma abordagem a partir de um modelo stock-flow consistent (SFC)

Abstract

The objective of the work was to analyze theoretically and empirically the effects of a specific policy of real devaluation of the exchange rate on the distributive conflict. The thesis demonstrated that long-term productivity gains fromthe neutralization of the Dutch disease through the policy of exchange devaluation more than compensates for its shortterm negative effects on real wages, to the point of guaranteeing a trajectory of economic growth, which significantly mitigates the distributive conflict in an economy, such as the simulated one. In addition, the impacts of devaluation on inflation are dampened, reflecting productivity growth. For this, two methodologies were used. Empirically, a study was carried out applied to the Brazilian Economy, with the objective of verifying a possible long-term relationship between a real devaluation of the exchange rate and the labor productivity of the industrial sector. Based on the NARDL econometric methodology, evidence was found that a real devaluation of the exchange rate (and not the other way around) positively impacts the rate of productivity growth in the long run. Then, a theoretical model was built using the Stock-Flow-Consistent approach, with the objective of capturing the effects that a specific rule of devaluation exchange rate policy would have on the main variables related to the distributive conflict in an open economy model. Current new developmental analyzes were considered mere conjectures. The present thesis advanced in the debate, presenting pioneering theoretical and empirical results in this sense.