O futuro da Venezuela frente à atual crise política e socioeconômica

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to understand the circumstances that led the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to the current political and socioeconomic crisis that has been dragging on since the beginning of the government of Nicolás Maduro and, based on that, using the proposed Prospective Scenario Method by Michel Godet, to build four scenarios for the future of the crisis over a ten-year time horizon (2021-2031). This study allows the understanding of the general panorama of Venezuela, through a historical review of the last twenty years, the definition of the most relevant actors in the system under study, as well as its objectives and strategies, and the identification of the key variables, considered essential for the evolution of the system. From an analysis of influence and dependence between actors, and between actors and variables, it will be possible to prospect a scenario of maintaining the status quo, of democratic transition, of regime change, and of external intervention.