Fluxos de capitais para o Brasil na década de 90:fatores condicionantes e análise empírica

Abstract

This research work has as one of its main goal to examine the main determinants of capital flows to Brazil during the 1990’s, and by following this approach the dissertation will examine the links with other variables such as interest rate differential, country risk and public debt. The existing literature has shown that the cnicial factor to understand capital flows to emerging economies is the interest rate differential, wliicli has been empirically verified on the empirical part of the dissertation. The interest rate differential not only is the main factor to understand capital flows in Brazil during the 1990’s for total capital and portfolio flows, but these two capital flows specifícations are the primary variables in terms of explaining the interest rate differential among all the variables uses in the vector autoregressive model. Other than this, the empirical analysis does not reveal a significant role for the public debt to uncovered capital flow movements.