Desenvolvimento econômico reduz criminalidade?: evidências para os municípios paulistas

Abstract

This paper’s main objective is the investigation on the effects of economial development on lethal and nonlethal municipal crime rates. Therewith, it was created an unprecedented crime index for the state and city of São Paulo, decoupled in the previously mentioned crimes. Moreover, it was estimated models with panel data for the period between 2007 and 2016, applying four diferent methods: i) aleathory effects method (AEM); ii) fixed effects method (FEM); iii) fixed effects method with robust standart errors; and iv) fixed effects method with jackknife. According to the economical theory of crime, economical development may cause a dissuasion on the marginal propension to criminal deeds (BECKER, 1968). The outcome achived validate the hypotesis that better economic development rates reduce the crime index. However, other variables are also important to illustrate violence, such as policing efficiency and the accsess to fire wepons.