Validação de um modelo de utilização e de previsão do consumo de energia no Brasil

Abstract

This work presents the historical evolution of the consumption of different sources of conventional energy in Brasil. It deals with each energy source in detail and calculate the consumption profile and the availability of each energetic. In the second part of present work projections are made of energy consumption in Brasil up to the year 2020. Population and gross national product estimates are also made. In order to achieve this, an algoritm written in FORTRAN was developed. And the results obtained by running the program on an IBM 3090 machine at the Federal University of Uberlândia Computer Centre. The mathematical model was adapted from the one by the Clean Energy Research Institute at the University of Miamy (U.S.A.). Necessary adjustments were made by taking into account available historical data of the Brazilian energy consumption. Results were compared with forecasting data of research institute and government agencies.