O desempenho do método de análise técnica bandas de bollinger

Abstract

The efficient capital market is defined as one that publicly available information is fully reflected in stock prices, without the interference of inside information. Thus, the traditional methods of investment analysis become more efficient. However, it is possible to verify that there are markets where the leakage of privileged information occurs, favoring some investors. In this context, technical analysis becomes a more efficient method of analyzing investment funds, since it is based on a behavioral study of stock purchase and sale, it has indicators that aid in its investigation of the market, having the Bands of Bollinger as one of its most used in the world, being thus object of study of this work. In this sense, the present study seeks to confront Bollinger Bands technical analysis method with the traditional Buy and Hold method, analyzing the Ibovespa index (B3) data from the years 2016 to 2018 so that one can verify which type of investment fund has greater profitability than the other, thus making a confrontation between the efficient market hypothesis (HME) and the technical analysis. For such verification, a quantitative research method will be used, collecting the data through the Rico - Metatrader system, performing thirty purchase / sale transactions using the bands, calculating the profitability acquired in each sale indicated by the method, thus making a comparative with the traditional method. With this, it was seen that the object of the study did not obtain a statistically higher performance than the one confronted. It is concluded, therefore, that the technique of Bollinger Bands technique analysis is not more efficient than the method in comparison (Buy and Hold), compared to the data used, thus reinforcing HME. This suggests that the performance of the Bollinger Bands should be evaluated against other long and short duration methods, allowing a more detailed analysis of their efficiency through the desired investment time.