Relação entre o comportamento de indicadores econômico-financeiros do agronegócio com a variação de índices econômicos

Abstract

The research conducted in this dissertation studied the relationship between the fluctuation of economic indices and the behavior of economic and financial indicators of the Brazilian public agribusiness. Inserted in a context of increasing the importance of this sector in the economy of the country, concomitant with a period of macro and microeconomic fluctuations negative. The purpose of this dissertation was to analyze how the relationships between the fluctuation of variables related to the economic context of the country and the sector occurred, as well as the behavior of the economic and financial indicators of Liquidity, Working Capital Management and Equity Structure of listed agribusiness companies in Brazil, Bolsa, Balcão SA (B3 SA) in the time horizon between 2010 and 2016. The independent variables of this study were macroeconomic indices (SELIC), inflation (IPCA), exchange rate (dollar / real) and GDP), microeconomic indices (balance of trade balance and sector specific GDP) related to the activity of the sector with the foreign market. The dependent variables (economic and financial indicators) were derived from the statements extracted from 33 companies of the Economática Platform. For the comparison of these two groups of variables, the Multiple Regression Analysis was performed using the Panel Data Analysis technique, raising support results, such as the evidence that the agribusiness companies' performance profile encompasses a larger radius than that proposed in the agricultural segments present in the stock exchange. It is evident that even with positive microeconomic indicators (agribusiness, agriculture and livestock GDP), when the country's economy is declining (2014, 2015 and 2016), agribusiness has been shown by the behavior of its economic and financial indicators, be a sector resistant to economic inclement, where the continuity of an unfavorable macroeconomic context is associated with a worsening of the indices of the sector in the external market. Having identified this sector's performance profile, we investigated the relationships proposed by the analysis of 33 balanced panels. As main results, it was concluded that the relationship between liquidity indicators and economic indices are associated in the short term for companies that operate in chain support activities, and for the long term, the relation was verified for the companies that act in agribusiness directly. For the Working Capital Management, indicators that are more negative were observed in times when the economic crisis worsened, and this worsened the working capital structure in relation to the market risk to which it is exposed, especially for companies that operate in the activities of Support. For the Indicators of Asset Structure, the lack of statistical significance between the observed relationships was identified, empirically backed by the economic and financial health of the sector, evidenced in the efficient management of funding and application of long-term resources. The general trends established that even highly leveraged, Brazilian agribusiness presents good quality debt, evidencing a surplus of long-term resources that are applied in highly liquid assets between 2010 and 2016.