A produção de café arábica e sua relação com o crédito rural nos principais estados produtores do Brasil

Abstract

This work objective is to study the behavior of coffee production in the main producing states of Brazil, compared to the incentives of rural credit made available for crop costing, investment and commercialization. The study is made using data of planted area, harvested area, production and productivity of the largest producing states of the country, being them Bahia, Pará, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Paraná. These harvest and production data are made available by Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB), as well as data on rural credit provided by Banco Central do Brasil. The period chosen for the study went from 2008 to 2015. For analysis, the Kolmogorov-smirnov normality test was applied, observing that some variables presented normal distribution and others presented non-normal distribution. For correlation coefficient calculation, Pearson was used for those data that presented normal distribution and for those that presented non-normal distribution, the Spearman coefficient was used. With this was verified that there is a significant linear correlation between rural credit and production, both when considering Brazil as a whole as when observing the states individually. In the second case it is observed that rural credit aimed mainly at investment presents a negative correlation, showing inverse association between credit and production. In mostly cases, however, the correlation is strong, significant and direct, allowing the inference that rural credit is a source of resources that is strongly associated with the agricultural production in Brazil.