Os impactos do PAC no crescimento econômico regional: uma abordagem PósKeynesiana multissetorial

Abstract

This dissertation aims to analyze the effects of investments in road infrastructure for foreign trade with the BRICS, as well as their effects on the per capita growth of the Brazilian states. For this, a multisectoral model of export-led growth is constructed, which will be used as a reference in the empirical analysis, which advances in mathematical terms with the inclusion of infrastructure investments impacting trade between countries. The methodology employed in this work is that of panel data and the period of analysis comprises the years 2008 to 2013, due to the availability of data. The results are categorical, in order to demonstrate that the trade of the Brazilian states was affected by the PAC's road investments. The estimates were made in three cuts: all states; Southern and Southeastern states; And with the states of the Northeast, North and Central West. It is also possible to affirm that the economies of the South and Southeast states, which have a better infrastructure, had a positive impact on the investments of the PAC, while in the worst infrastructure regions, North, Northeast and Central West, investments Of the PAC had a negative impact on income; regions with a deficit infrastructure should have a positive impact on income when the infrastructure reaches a minimum level of competitiveness. Thus, it should be noted that PAC investments must be completed and stimulated in the North, Northeast and Central West regions to improve the economic performance of these regions.