Ingresso de capitais e volatilidade uma análise sobre o risco-país

Abstract

This present work intends to analyze the relation enters the flows of capitals, the Agencies of Evaluation of Risk and the variation of index EMBI+ of emergent countries as: Mexico, Argentina, Asia, Russia and Brazil. The study it will parse two period: the first one if relates to the year of 1990 the 1998, where the cambial crises of Mexico, Asia and Russia had occurred, phase this marked by a period of great liquidity in the international market. Second if it relates to the years after 1999, where the majority of the countries adopts the floating exchange and has a movement of feast or famine in international the financial market. In the case of Brazil, beyond if studying the relation of the flows of capitals, EMBI+Brasil and the Agencies of Ratings, we will see the dynamics of the internal interests, that has a positive correlation with the prize of internal risk of Brazil, this is calculated by the difference between Real the Selic Tax and the Tax of Waited Future Interests, measured for the Swaps DI-Pré 360 days.