Determinação dos juros e metas de inflação no Brasil: uma crítica através da abordagem pós-keynesiana

Abstract

The central purpose of this study is analyze the behavior of the Inflation Target Regime in Brazil, presenting inconsistencies related to its own conception, that finish for keeping the country in the trap of the vulnerability, high interests rate and low economic growth. The specific objective is to relate the determination of the interest rate with the movement of the capital flows Brazilian-oriented. Additionally, since the context of volatility of the exchange rate and high public debt, the capitals flows will be related to the Risk-Country and the relation public debt/GDP. In order to accomplish this objectives, a study of the volatility of the series of the financial account will use, with the purpose to verify which series are more volatile. After that, it will realize a study of the interrelation of the capitals flows with the interest rate, the Risk-Country and the public debt through an analysis of the stimulus and reaction functions, the variance decomposition and the test of Granger Causality, on the basis of the Vector Autoregressive methodology (VAR). The empirical results suggest, mainly, that the volatile capital flows are very unstable and that the Risk-Country is more correlated with this dynamics than the fundamental economics. Moreover, this dissertation suggests that the current problem of the brazilian economy is not the management of the inflation target, but the continuity of the centrality of politics to combat the inflation, articulated to the financial opening, that lead to the resistance of the fall of interests rate.