Doença holandesa e fluxos de capitais no Brasil no período recente (2000-2013)

Abstract

The growing demand for agricultural and mineral commodities given the high international prices over the 2000s, did reappear discussing the possibility of the existence of the Dutch disease in the Brazilian economy. The concept of Dutch disease proposed by Corden and Neary (1982), in which we call classic model says that economies with competitive advantages in natural resources can be affected negatively by the high prices paid in foreign trade for these commodities due the appreciation of the real exchange rate. This thesis aimed to include the classical model of Dutch disease variable capital flows, with the proxy investment in foreign portfolioand renamed Dutch disease magnified by capital flows. Thus, three explanatory models have been proposed in search of empirical evidence for the Dutch disease magnified by capital flows in the Brazilian economy for the years 2000 to 2013. The results indicate the non-occurrence of Dutch disease in the Brazilian economy, whether in its classical form or in form expanded by capital flows due to their low explanatory power that the trade variables and capital flows focus on the real exchange rate, and the necessary and sufficient conditions that have been set for the occurrence of disease Dutch, were not answered.