Efeitos do aumento da participação da China sobre as exportações brasileiras: 1983-2013

Abstract

This study analyze the impact of China's share of growth in total Brazilian exports of these same exports, checking what happened to their structure, the composition of its agenda and the role they play in the growth of leverage domestic economy in the period 1983-2013. To carry out its purpose, the study analyzed models that consider the impact of China on Brazilian exports and others who disregard this impact. First, we used the synthetic control method for comparative studies to build a better unit for comparison with Brazil after the rise of China's share of total exports, here called Synthetic country. After made this synthetic Country, it went to the estimation of econometric models defined in the work, and we want it, thereby making comparisons between the results of the model parameters for the Brazil and for the Synthetic country, based on analysis of impulse response, error variance decomposition, the Granger causality test and co-integration method of Johansen. It was also made China's Impact Index About the Brazilian Exports (ICEB) in order to check in more detail and didactically the increase of China's participation in the total Brazilian exports affected the variables that determine the country's exports. In addition to exports aggregated, all analyzes were also performed on disaggregated Brazilian exports, observing this breakdown the types of Pavitt. The main results of the study suggest that exports from Brazil and the Synthetic Country had a significant increase in the period 1983-2013, only Brazilian grew more intense after the increase in China's share of total exports from Brazil. The results for the ICEB help illustrate the weighted foreign income remains the most relevant variable to explain the movements of Brazilian exports, but also give evidence that there is a process of increasing the role of prices in explaining these exports. In terms of disaggregated exports, the analyzes in this paper indicate that the growth of Brazilian exports have been boosted mainly by exports of commodities at the expense of those of manufactured products with higher added value, which does not make clear whether the increased China's share of total exports has caused a change in the role of these exports on leveraging the growth of the Brazilian economy.