A influência de fatores psicológicos e comportamentais no risco de crédito: uma abordagem à luz da psicologia econômica

Abstract

Among the topics covered in the field of economic psychology the study of personal credit and debt has been shown to be considerably relevant, both as regards the improvement in credit analysis processes employed by financial institutions, and with respect to debt of the families witch apply for credit in the market to enable the realization of their projects. In this context, this dissertation was developed aiming to analyze the influence of psychological and behavioral factors - measurable by instruments used in economic psychology studies - in determining the credit risk of people. Developed, then, this research descriptive type, quantitative approach, through the analysis of the responses coming from the questionnaires to the participants (Rogers, 2011), where the psychological and behavioral factors measured were identified and characterized as independent variables, and the risk credit of the agents characterized as dependent variable - through the use of credit scoring SPC 12 MONTHS for each participant - being used multiple linear regression technique to analyze the relationship between these variables. About the survey results, it was found that the meaning of money for individuals, the self-efficacy, optimism, the profile of compulsive buying, financial education, self-control, and the time horizon affect the classification of the credit risk. More specifically, the results showed that assigning negative beliefs about money, have lower levels of selfefficacy, have lower levels of optimism, expressing the behavior of compulsive buying, the absence of prior financial education, the lack of self control - treated here by proxy regarding the variable of alcoholic beverages to excess; and consider smaller time horizons for financial planning are characteristics associated with greater credit risk of economic agents. These results corroborate those found in Rogers (2011), among other research on the subject - such as Webley and Nyhus (2001), Perry (2008) and Vio (2008) - in addition to being aligned with the propositions of economic psychology. These results thus contribute to a better understanding of factors influencing the increased risk of default on the part of individuals, which allows both the improvement in the process of credit analysis by the inclusion of alternative predictive variables, as to allow the implementation of public policies to improve the financial health of families by promoting awareness among economic agents about the psychological and behavioral factors that lead to greater risk of default.