Modelo de investimento de longo prazo em renda fixa com alavancagem da rentabilidade baseado na expectativa atuarial e no diferencial da taxa de juros

Abstract

The proposal for an investment of long-term, that makes the investor foresee return rates above the average market, can bring resources to the financial system, which achieve the lines of the productive sector, poor of long term capital. However, the financial systems is intended to the duality that a bigger profitability in financial applications, at the same time that increases the attractivity of the savers, it increases the cost of the capital, make impracticable the implementation of new projects. Given this view, the goal of this dissertation is to present a new financial product of long-term fixed income, that enables a bigger profitability, without generating the consideration of a burden to the financial system, which would be passed to the final takers, project executives, which are limited to its internal rate of return (IRR). This statement will be achieved from a combination of actuarial expectation with the differential of two interest rates in the market, where the cost of capital will be limited to the highest of these rates, while the remuneration of the saver will be the highest rate added with several times the differential of the two rates, as often as is the relationship between investors, living and deceased, of the same age group after the expiry of term of the implementation period. The theoretical base that substantiates the present inquiry, examines the financial Brazilian system in detail, exposes the theory of the temporarily structure of the interest rate, reaches the theory of bank risk, use the study on the profile of the savers, check incentives and subsidies for the allocation of resources of long term in the Brazilian legislation, focus the actuarial liabilities, and it unfolds statistical expressions of the life expectancy and of the census obituary in the last years in Brazil. For better understanding of the proposed model are carried out simulations of the limit of profitability offered to groups of investors of the same age group, in a way to not to change the cost of money allocated to final takers, keeping the same spread banking. The simulations are made in applications with maturity term of 20 and 30 years, showing that bigger terms can reach higher annual rates of return. In the same way, it appears that the older age groups may also be offered higher annual rates of interest.