Aplicação de método quantitativo de previsão de demanda em uma doceria

Abstract

Microenterprises are an alternative for thousands of workers who resort to entrepreneurship as a source of income, especially in crisis contexts. In this sense, it is important to use techniques for managing production systems, highlighting those for forecasting and managing demand. Thus, the objective of this article is to apply a quantitative method of demand forecasting in a microenterprise in the handmade sweets and cakes sector, in order to maintain adequate levels of raw material stock and support demand management decisions. As for the methodology, a case study was carried out, which followed the following steps: surveying the historical data of the family of ready-to-deliver products; analyze the time series and define the quantitative forecasting model; apply and validate the model; calculate raw material requirements; conduct market research in order to guide demand management strategies. The results showed that the time series decomposition model presented accurate forecast values, which allowed the calculation of the weekly raw material requirement of the ready-to-deliver family. In turn, market research showed the factors influencing the purchase decision of customers, the most relevant being the price of the products.