Taxa de câmbio e crescimento setorial no Brasil (1996-2013)

Abstract

This work aims to carry out a sectoral and bilateral analysis of the Brazilian economy, assessing the relationship with its major trading partners, China, the United States and the Eurozone. Thus, the real exchange rate plays a fundamental role in determining the long-term economic growth. It is argued that there is a recent trend of exchange rate overvaluation, undermining the productive structure of the Brazilian economy and the industry, which is considered the engine of growth for post-Keynesian theory. Based on a export-led multisectoral growth model type were estimated growth rates of the sectors of the Brazilian economy for each of the trading partners aforementioned by the methodology Vectors Auto-Regressive (VAR). The results show that the extractive industry has a strong dependence of the real effective exchange rate in the bilateral relationship Brazil x China, while in trade relations with the United States and the Eurozone the sector that depends on the real effective exchange rate is that of the manufacturing industry. Thus, the exchange rate is centerpiece in defining a growth strategy for the Brazilian economy.