Análise dos componentes da crise econômica brasileira de 2014 a 2018 através de Vetores Autoregressivos

Abstract

Given the unstable economic and political situation that Brazil has suffered, in greater magnitude, since the last decade, the present work aims to analyze the components responsible for the Brazilian economic crisis from 2014 to 2018, as well as catalog them according to their explanatory preponderance. The temporal window mentioned above was chosen for the reason that such retraction is considered the worst in the history of the Brazilian nation. In addition to the constituent variables of the Gross Domestic Product, different indicators, qualitative and quantitative, were used in order to give greater robustness to the research. The econometric framework of the research consists mainly of the Autoregressive Vectors method, which proves the fact that economic and political uncertainty is the most relevant element of the recession.