https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/19303 Mon, 31 Aug 2026 18:17:18 GMT 2026-08-31T18:17:18Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49964 Title: Competitividade das exportações de minerais estratégicos brasileiros: desafios e oportunidades frente à transição energética Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49964 2026-08-06T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49917 Title: O modelo de três equações is-pc-mr e violação da condição de Marshall-Lerner. uma análise empírica via BARVX para América Latina entre os anos de 2000 a 2024. Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamics between the real exchange rate, exports, imports, domestic output, interest rates, and external income for four Latin American countries—Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Colombia—within the framework of testing the dynamic version of the Marshall- Lerner condition. The study combines five domestic variables—export volumes, import volumes, the real effective exchange rate, the monetary policy interest rate, and real GDP— with one external variable, serving as a proxy for global income growth. In order to reconcile measures of external competitiveness and international demand while avoiding dimensionality issues, the study estimates, for each country in the sample, two Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models with an exogenous variable (BVARX). The results indicate significant heterogeneity across the economies analyzed in response to real exchange rate appreciation shocks. While Brazil and Chile exhibit results broadly consistent with the Marshall-Lerner condition, particularly through the behavior of imports, Colombia and Mexico display deviations from the model’s theoretical predictions. In general, both GDP and interest rates do not conform to the expected dynamics under the validity of the Marshall-Lerner condition, highlighting limitations in the explanatory power of the three-equation model. Finally, the variance decomposition analysis reveals that, for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, exports are predominantly explained by their own shocks, whereas in Mexico they are more sensitive to domestic income. Imports exhibit a similar pattern across countries, with their dynamics largely driven by their own lags and showing low sensitivity to the other variables included in the model. Thu, 14 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49917 2026-05-14T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49901 Title: Desafios e descontinuidades na política monetária brasileira: 27 anos de regra de Taylor no Brasil Abstract: The main objective of this monograph is to evaluate the conduct of monetary policy in Brazil and its adherence to the Taylor Rule (1993), considering the relationship between the interest rate, inflation, the output gap, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate. To this end, monthly data from January 2001 to August 2025 were used, covering the inflation targeting regime in the country. The methodology employed was the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), which is appropriate for addressing potential endogeneity issues among the variables. Different model specifications were estimated, including variations with lags and structural breaks, in order to capture changes in the conduct of monetary policy over time. The results indicate that the Central Bank of Brazil primarily reacts to deviations of inflation from its target, with this variable being the most robust across the estimations. Inflation expectations also show relevance in a significant number of models, while the output gap presents low statistical significance, suggesting a smaller role for economic activity in the conduct of monetary policy. The exchange rate proves to be relevant in some specifications, particularly in the full sample, but loses significance when subperiods are considered. Overall, the findings point to a partial adherence to the Taylor Rule, with Brazilian monetary policy evolving over time and incorporating factors beyond the traditional rule Tue, 21 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49901 2026-07-21T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49889 Title: Risco climático e instabilidade sistêmica no Brasil: uma análise pós-keynesiana Abstract: This research investigates how climate risk converts into systemic risk to financial stability and analyzes the institutional arrangements necessary to mitigate this threat, with a descriptive focus on the Brazilian scenario. The methodology adopted consists of theoretical-normative research under the post-Keynesian framework, based on John Maynard Keynes's economics of uncertainty and Hyman Philip Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis, complemented by an empirical-descriptive characterization of Brazil's climate-financial landscape from 2008 to 2024. The theoretical analysis indicates that the market alone cannot price environmental degradation under radical uncertainty. In the absence of such pricing, the transmission channels of climate risk deteriorate balance sheets and create conditions to trigger a Climate Minsky Moment. The empirical characterization, exploratory in nature, indicates that the national productive model remains anchored in a carbon-intensive convention. It is observed that, despite the orthodox soundness of the National Financial System and the activism of the monetary authority, the regulatory arrangement operates without the proper climate lens, underestimating the already materialized physical shocks and the exposure to transition risks. It is argued that mitigating the risk of financial collapse tends to require shifting the focus from the socialization of risks to the socialization of sustainable investment. Future macroeconomic stability tends to depend on the resumption of institutional command by the State, integrating strategic planning, long-term financing provided by development banks (Big Government), and the stabilizing role of the central bank (Big Bank), consistent with the macroprudential policy consolidated after the 2008 crisis. Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49889 2026-07-24T00:00:00Z