https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/18970 2026-09-23T20:34:11Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/50219 Title: Crescimento econômico, desigualdades regionais e políticas públicas: Uma análise para o Nordeste brasileiro ( 2002-2021) Abstract: This study aims to analyze the evolution of regional policy instruments and their relationship with economic growth and the reduction of regional disparities in Northeast Brazil between 2002 and 2021. The methodology is based primarily on a historical-institutional approach and, complementarily, on the estimation of panel data econometric models. The results indicate that, during the period analyzed, the reduction of interregional disparities occurred mainly through a decline in personal income inequality, driven primarily by income transfer policies. Within the Northeast region, the growth of the semi-arid area stands out; combined with income transfer policies, it was strongly influenced by the actions of the Constitutional Financing Fund of the Northeast (FNE), resulting in growth rates above the regional average. In this sense, a positive relationship is observed between public policies, economic growth, and the reduction of regional disparities. However, such policies do not appear to be sufficient to promote structural changes capable of accelerating the process of reducing regional inequalities at a faster pace. 2026-02-25T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/50215 Title: A descarbonização do setor aéreo: desafios e perspectivas do segmento de aviação civil brasileiro Abstract: The decarbonization of civil aviation represents one of the major challenges of the global energy transition, as the sector relies on high-energy-density fuels and faces technological limitations for the immediate replacement of fossil jet fuel. In this context, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) have been identified by international organizations as one of the main alternatives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from air transport. This study analyzes the progress, challenges, and prospects for the implementation of SAF in Brazil, considering the development of the National Sustainable Aviation Fuel Program (ProBioQAV) and its alignment with international decarbonization initiatives such as the International Civil Aviation Organization’s CORSIA scheme and the International Air Transport Association’s Fly Net Zero program. The research adopts a qualitative and exploratory approach, combining literature review, institutional analysis, and field research. The empirical investigation was conducted through a structured questionnaire based on a Likert scale directed at specialists and professionals from different segments of the SAF value chain in Brazil, resulting in 53 valid responses. The findings indicate that although Brazil has important comparative advantages, such as abundant biomass availability and consolidated experience in biofuel production, the development of a SAF market depends on overcoming regulatory, fiscal, and logistical barriers, as well as strengthening financial mechanisms and institutional coordination. The results also reveal asymmetries in the perceptions of different stakeholders within the value chain, particularly regarding the role of public policies and carbon pricing instruments. The study concludes that the successful development of SAF in Brazil will depend on the articulation of energy, industrial, and environmental policies capable of transforming the country’s productive potential into a competitive advantage in the global aviation decarbonization process. 2026-04-29T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49943 Title: O papel da volatilidade da taxa de câmbio no crescimento econômico de Angola (1995-2024): modelo ARDL Abstract: This dissertation aims to analyze the relationship between exchange rate volatility and Angola's economic growth over the period from 1995 to 2024. The relevance of this topic stems from the Angolan economy's heavy dependence on oil exports and its strong exposure to external shocks, which significantly influence exchange rate dynamics and the country's macroeconomic performance. To achieve the proposed objective, measures of nominal effective exchange rate volatility and real effective exchange rate volatility were estimated using ARCH-GARCH models. Subsequently, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was employed to identify both short-run and long-run relationships between exchange rate volatility and economic growth, while controlling for the effects of inflation, terms of trade, the investment rate, international oil prices, and human capital. The results reveal the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables in all estimated models, as confirmed by the Bounds tests and the statistically significant error correction coefficients. The main empirical finding, based on the objective of this dissertation, is that nominal effective exchange rate volatility is statistically significant with a positive coefficient in the long run in Model 1 (including human capital), whereas in Model 2 (including changes in the terms of trade), it is not statistically significant and exhibits a negative coefficient. By contrast, for the models incorporating real effective exchange rate volatility, no statistical significance was found in either of the two estimated ARDL models, although the estimated coefficients are positive in both cases. The findings also reveal differences in the speed of adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium. While the first model with the nominal effective exchange rate indicates a return to equilibrium in approximately four years, the second model suggests an adjustment period of around five years. For Models 1 and 2 based on the real effective exchange rate, the adjustment speed is similar, with equilibrium being restored in approximately six years. Short-run changes in exchange rate volatility proved to be relevant in the models including human capital for both the nominal and real effective exchange rates. Overall, the error correction evidence suggests that exchange rate shocks generate relatively persistent effects on the Angolan economy, reflecting structural characteristics associated with its high dependence on the oil sector and its limited productive diversification. 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49549 Title: Ciclo financeiro global, controles de capitais e autonomia de política monetária nas economias emergentes Abstract: The objective of the master's thesis is to examine the relation between monetary autonomy, capital controls and exchange rate regimes. The study employs a Global VAR with monthly data of 23 emerging economies and the United States from 2004M07 to 2024M06. The theorical and empirical investigation indicates that a restrictive US monetary policy shock does not alter the conduct of monetary policy in the sampled countries (analyzed as a group) according to the use of capital controls or exchange rate arrangements when analyzed separately. Regarding the intersection between the use of capital controls and exchange rate arrangements, the study’s finding aligns with the “dilemma” hypothesis from Rey (2013), rejecting the idea of the traditional trilemma hypothesis, that economies with flexible exchange rate regime per se can guarantee monetary autonomy for the country. However, this result does not hold in the robustness checks, in which alternative classification of exchange rate arrangements and financial openness indexes are employed. Therefore, the study contributes to the literature by providing a more disaggregated empirical analysis of capital controls, exclusively on emerging economies, and by stating that the floating exchange rate regime and capital controls are not drivers of monetary autonomy in EMEs. Among the literature reviewed, this is the first work to investigate the impact of US MP shock on countries’ short-term interest rates according to more granular capital controls. 2026-02-13T00:00:00Z