https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/18970 2026-08-31T03:08:53Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49943 Title: O papel da volatilidade da taxa de câmbio no crescimento econômico de Angola (1995-2024): modelo ARDL Abstract: This dissertation aims to analyze the relationship between exchange rate volatility and Angola's economic growth over the period from 1995 to 2024. The relevance of this topic stems from the Angolan economy's heavy dependence on oil exports and its strong exposure to external shocks, which significantly influence exchange rate dynamics and the country's macroeconomic performance. To achieve the proposed objective, measures of nominal effective exchange rate volatility and real effective exchange rate volatility were estimated using ARCH-GARCH models. Subsequently, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was employed to identify both short-run and long-run relationships between exchange rate volatility and economic growth, while controlling for the effects of inflation, terms of trade, the investment rate, international oil prices, and human capital. The results reveal the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables in all estimated models, as confirmed by the Bounds tests and the statistically significant error correction coefficients. The main empirical finding, based on the objective of this dissertation, is that nominal effective exchange rate volatility is statistically significant with a positive coefficient in the long run in Model 1 (including human capital), whereas in Model 2 (including changes in the terms of trade), it is not statistically significant and exhibits a negative coefficient. By contrast, for the models incorporating real effective exchange rate volatility, no statistical significance was found in either of the two estimated ARDL models, although the estimated coefficients are positive in both cases. The findings also reveal differences in the speed of adjustment toward the long-run equilibrium. While the first model with the nominal effective exchange rate indicates a return to equilibrium in approximately four years, the second model suggests an adjustment period of around five years. For Models 1 and 2 based on the real effective exchange rate, the adjustment speed is similar, with equilibrium being restored in approximately six years. Short-run changes in exchange rate volatility proved to be relevant in the models including human capital for both the nominal and real effective exchange rates. Overall, the error correction evidence suggests that exchange rate shocks generate relatively persistent effects on the Angolan economy, reflecting structural characteristics associated with its high dependence on the oil sector and its limited productive diversification. 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49549 Title: Ciclo financeiro global, controles de capitais e autonomia de política monetária nas economias emergentes Abstract: The objective of the master's thesis is to examine the relation between monetary autonomy, capital controls and exchange rate regimes. The study employs a Global VAR with monthly data of 23 emerging economies and the United States from 2004M07 to 2024M06. The theorical and empirical investigation indicates that a restrictive US monetary policy shock does not alter the conduct of monetary policy in the sampled countries (analyzed as a group) according to the use of capital controls or exchange rate arrangements when analyzed separately. Regarding the intersection between the use of capital controls and exchange rate arrangements, the study’s finding aligns with the “dilemma” hypothesis from Rey (2013), rejecting the idea of the traditional trilemma hypothesis, that economies with flexible exchange rate regime per se can guarantee monetary autonomy for the country. However, this result does not hold in the robustness checks, in which alternative classification of exchange rate arrangements and financial openness indexes are employed. Therefore, the study contributes to the literature by providing a more disaggregated empirical analysis of capital controls, exclusively on emerging economies, and by stating that the floating exchange rate regime and capital controls are not drivers of monetary autonomy in EMEs. Among the literature reviewed, this is the first work to investigate the impact of US MP shock on countries’ short-term interest rates according to more granular capital controls. 2026-02-13T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49166 Title: Os serviços intensivos em conhecimento no Brasil: estrutura e dinâmica inovativa Abstract: This dissertation aims to analyze Knowledge-Intensive Business Services (KIBS), presenting their structure and innovative dynamics in Brazil, and comparing them with the country's Manufacturing Industry. The analysis is structured in three chapters. The first chapter addresses the literature on innovation in services, highlighting the overcoming of the traditional view that attributed a passive character to the sector, emphasizing the importance of its innovative dynamics. Definitions, classifications, and the role of KIBS in innovation systems are presented, as well as an international overview, with data from organizations such as UNCTAD, World Bank and OECD, demonstrating the growing economic importance of knowledge-intensive services. The second chapter empirically characterizes KIBS in Brazil, using data from PAS and RAIS between 2007 and 2021. The results show that, although KIBS represent a still modest portion of the Brazilian productive structure compared to industry, they present a consistent growth trajectory in the number of companies, net operating revenue, and formal employment relationships. Furthermore, an internal analysis of KIBS reveals a clear heterogeneity between T-KIBS and P-KIBS in the labor market. The last chapter compares the innovative behavior of KIBS and the Manufacturing Industry, based on several editions of PINTEC for the period 2008-2017. The results indicate that, although industry invests larger absolute volumes in R&D, KIBS show a greater relative intensity of innovative effort and prioritize process innovations. Industry, in turn, maintains broader and more consolidated cooperation networks with its production chain (suppliers, customers) and focuses more on incremental innovations. In summary, the results indicate that KIBS are a dynamic and strategic segment in the Brazilian economy, with a distinct and complementary innovative profile to that of industry. The results reinforce the need for innovation support policies that recognize the specificities of knowledge-intensive services, promoting their integration with other sectors to strengthen the country's competitiveness and technological development. 2026-03-20T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/49141 Title: Políticas industriais e sustentabilidade: um estudo sobre a energia solar fotovoltaica nos Estados Unidos, China, Alemanha, Índia, Japão e Brasil Abstract: This study examines the extent to which industrial policies directed at the photovoltaic solar energy sector have promoted technological development and productive linkages in the United States, China, Germany, Japan, India, and Brazil within the context of the energy transition. Grounded in the theoretical contributions of Chang, Andreoni, Rodrik, Mazzucato, Mathews, and Altenburg, the study conceives solar energy as a strategic vector for the structural transformation of economies. The methodology combines documentary analysis of laws, plans, programs, and energy and industrial policy instruments with the analysis of indicators of installed capacity, generation, employment, and foreign trade, based on data from IRENA, the IEA, COMTRADE, and WIPO. The results indicate that countries that combined demand-side stimulus with direct support policies for production and innovation, such as the Chinese Five-Year Plans, the German Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, and fiscal and regulatory incentives, consolidated robust productive chains, higher export activity, and innovative capacity, as evidenced by patenting activity. By contrast, India and Brazil advanced in the diffusion of the technology through auctions and distributed generation, but remained heavily dependent on imports and exhibited low levels of technological internalization. The study suggests that the effectiveness of green industrial policies depends on the state’s capacity to coordinate energy and industrial policy instruments within a long-term strategy. In the Brazilian case, it concludes that transforming solar potential into an industrial and technological advantage requires stronger coordination among support for production, research and development, local content, and regulatory stability. 2026-04-29T00:00:00Z